Impeachment, global pandemic, stock market volatility, record unemployment, Presidential election, eviction moratoriums, just a few of the events that have made 2020 a challenge for multifamily owners and operators. If you are like me, you are ready to end this 2020 weirdness and move-on to 2021.
No one knows for sure the short-term or long-term impact of COVID-19 but the following are two pieces of information to help you navigate 2021: the 2021 economic forecast and the 2021 salary survey.
Cortland Chief Economist Brad Dillman recently provided his market insight and economic forecast for 2021 during the annual AATC-AAGD State of the Industry conference. Dillman has his Master’s in Science from the London School of Economics and more than fifteen years of professional experience in real estate, data modeling, and economic analyses.
Following are few highlights from Dillman’s presentation (click on the below link to read the entire presentation):
- 2021 Employment: DFW continues to outperform the nation with DFW employment rebounding to 2018 levels and national employment achieving the 2015 level. As expected, leisure and hospitality jobs (down 19%) along with personal services jobs (dry cleaners, pet care, etc. down 9%) were major job loss sectors.
- DFW Jobs: DFW continues to generate and attract jobs. Uber 3,000 jobs to Deep Ellum. Charles Schwab 1,000 jobs in DFW. USAA 800 jobs in Plano. Amazon 1,000 warehouse jobs. These job gains are in addition to the recent relocations of Toyota, State Farm, & Liberty Mutual.
- DFW Population Gain: DFW has added more than 1.3 million since 2010 for an estimated 2020 population of more than 7.5 million. More than a half-million people have moved to DFW from other states since 2010.
- 2021 Rent Growth: Rent’s decline 1.5% in 1st Quarter of 2021 but in 2nd Quarter 2021 begin a sustained rise through 2023. Eviction moratoriums and delinquencies will impact Class C properties. The gap between Class A and Class C rents continues to tighten in 2021.
AATC and AAGD partner with J Turner Research to produce an annual DFW multifamily housing salary survey. Like all operational areas, COVID-19 impacted compensation. Following are significant findings (click on the below link to read the entire survey):
Perry Pillow is AATC’s Director of Government Affairs. For more information, you can email him at firstname.lastname@example.org