State of the Industry

by Candy Maxey, Greystar, AATC's Treasurer

AATC and AAGD annually host a State of the Industry (SOI)– an economic forecast event held over lunch.  This year’s event coincides with fall budget season.   Mark Tuesday, September 18th, from 11:30 a.m. – 1:00 p.m. on your calendar at the Westin Galleria (13340 Dallas Pkwy, Dallas, TX 75240) and plan on joining your DFW multifamily colleagues for a look into the future.

Per usual, it is $55 to attend the SOI.  To register yourself and your team, go to:  https://apartmenttarranttxassoc.wliinc20.com/events/State-of-the-Industry-Luncheon-942/details

This year’s SOI speakers are Jessica Heer, Senior Vice President Talent Attraction, with the Dallas Regional Chamber and Carl Whitaker, Market Analyst, with RealPage.  Jessica will provide an overview of the economic forecast the Dallas Regional Chamber made this year including population projections, demographics changes to the DFW workforce; and net-migration data.  She will address trends in corporate relocations, updates recent economic development deals, provide a status update on Amazon’s decision. She will also review the Dallas Regional Chamber’s r national campaign for recruiting talent to DFW. Carl will provide an in-depth report on the DFW apartment market. He will cover the different property classes, rent changes, occupancy, absorption, and projected new unit inventory.  Per usual, there will be a question and answer opportunity with Jessica and Carl.

If you’re thinking, wait, we already had an SOI this year, you would be correct.  Historically, the SOI is held in January.  So, this year, we are having two!  Given our industry’s budget-cycle, it just makes sense to host this event in the fall.  For you econometric nerds out there, that means the presentations will be based on second-quarter numbers, but those should suffice for budget planning purposes.

Just for fun, let me remind you what your esteemed colleagues’ predictions in January for 2018:

RENT & OCCUPANCY: Rent increases between 2.5% and 3.5% and occupancy between 93.5% and 95% depending on the DFW submarket.

NEW AMENITIES: Package lockers, hammocks, outdoor kitchens and living spaces, pet-related products, “maker’s spaces”, DIY classes, Copycat kitchen, and enhanced concierge services.

OPERATIONAL EXPENSE INCREASE:  Other than the big three (personnel, mortgage/debt, and utilities), your peers predicted property taxes, advertising/marketing/promotion costs, turn costs, safety and security expenses (courtesy patrols, cameras, etc.) to rise.

HOT DFW SUBMARKETS:  The consensus was:  North Fort Worth and South Fort Worth in Tarrant County and North Dallas, Addison, Carrollton, and Farmers Branch.  Your peers were cautious about Frisco/Allen/Plano – too much new product in the pipeline.

CHALLENGES: Three words: effective rent growth, achieving budgeted results, retention—employees and residents, maintaining a strong reputation, attracting quality maintenance professionals.

My final prediction (guaranteed to come true):  someone (could be you) is going to win a 1967 Blue Camaro, but you’ll have to wait until the AATC Trade Show in November to find out who the winner is!

 For more information on any of AATC’s economic information sessions or seminars, contact Perry Pillow at ppillow@aatcnet.org or call him at 817-616-0354.